355-Ship Navy

A 355-Ship Navy Could Take Two Decades, Cost $102 Billion A Year

It would require building almost a completely new fleet.

 
By Kyle Mizokami

A plan to boost the size of the U.S. Navy to 355 ships would take nearly twenty years and cost more than a hundred billion dollars a year. That's the verdict of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which released its findings on the subject yesterday. The CBO believes boosting the size of the Navy by less than fifty ships would be considerably more complicated, time-consuming, and expensive than it sounds.

Today, the U.S. Navy stands at a total of 275 so-called "battle force ships"—major combatant ships such as aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, submarines, as well as tanker and ammunition ships. For years, the U.S. Navy has struggled to increase the size of the battle force to a minimum of 300 ships. The current plan, introduced in 2017, sets a minimum of 308 ships, but as ships are commissioned into the fleet and retired, that number will fluctuate. As a result, the CBO believes the Navy will hit that magic number in only 22 of the next 30 years.


Amphibious assault ship USS New York under construction.
Getty

President Donald Trump campaigned on the promise of a 350 ship Navy fleet. Shortly after the election, Navy officials went one step further and floated the idea of a 355 ship fleet, adding an additional aircraft carrier, 16 cruisers and destroyers, 18 attack submarines, 7 amphibious vessels, and 12 more logistics and support vessels.

Building a fleet is often a "three steps forward, two steps back" process. Older ships age out and retire even as new ships are commissioned into service. The march of technology,wear and tear on ships, and the natural corrosiveness of seawater guarantees that. The CBO believes that the earliest the U.S. Navy could reach its goal of 355 ships is 2035, or eighteen years from now.

The CBO believes the Navy would have to buy 329 ships over 30 years just to reach the 355 ship level. In other words, most of the ships operating today would be retired by the time the goal is achieved. The 355-ship plan would cost an additional $157 billion to $164 billion more than a 308-ship plan over 30 years.


The future aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford under construction at Huntington Ingalls Industries-Newport News Shipbuilding, February 2012.
U.S. Navy photo by Ricky Thompson

A major factor in shipbuilding costs? Buying 10 new aircraft carriers over a 30 year period. The United States Navy currently has ten carriers, and will have eleven when the USS Ford is commissioned into service. To get to a goal of twelve, it would need to buy ten more carriers between 2018 and 2048, replacing nine out of ten of the older Nimitz-class carriers.

The CBO estimates the average cost of each ship at $2.3 billion. While the bulk of the fleet purchases are smaller combatants such as destroyers and submarines that cost about $1.8 billion each, more expensive ships such as the upcoming Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine and aircraft carriers skew the average upward. The study also assumes a new guided-missile cruiser to replace the aging Ticonderoga-class cruisers and a new fast frigate to replace the retired Oliver Hazard Perry ships.

The Navy has, on average during the past decade, purchased eight new ships a year. Under the 355 ship plan, that would increase to an average of 12 to 15 ships a year.

Shipbuilding isn't the only cost involved. Total operating costs for the 355 ship Navy would be $102 billion a year through 2047. This includes operations, maintenance, and personnel; the CBO estimates the new fleet will need an extra 19,000 active duty sailors.


The future aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford during builders sea trials, April 2017.
U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist Christopher Delano

Everyone knew that building a bigger navy would cost more money, but the prospect of needing 18 years just to reach that point is a little daunting. For one thing, that exposes the entire program to more risk, as spending is spread out over potentially five different presidential administrations, each of which may have a different idea how to spend the nation's money. It also exposes the shipbuilding plan to the cyclical nature of the economy. The country will almost certainly have another economic recession during that time, which will have an effect on the federal budget. Finally, we may see potential adversaries, including China, build their fleets faster. The U.S. Navy needs a bigger fleet, but getting there isn't going to be easy.