Riddle of the Week

Riddle of the Week #12: Licking Frogs

Difficulty level: Hard

This week's riddle, originally posted by Ted-Ed, has number of similarities to the famous Monty Hall problem, so you might want to brush up on your conditional probability for this one.

PROBLEM

You are lost in the jungles of Brazil. After days of wandering, your food supplies dwindle, and you make a fatal mistake by eating a poisonous mushroom. You can feel the poison coursing through your veins, sure that you will collapse any second.

But there is hope. The antidote to the poison is secreted by a certain species of frog found in this rainforest, and you can save yourself by licking one of these frogs. But, only the female frogs secret the antidote you need. The male and female frogs look identical, and they occur in equal numbers across the population. The only distinguishing feature is that the male frogs have a unique croak.

As your vision starts to blur, you look up and see one of these frogs sitting on a stump in front of you. You are about to make a mad dash to the frog, praying that it is female, when you hear the male frog's distinctive croak behind you. You turn around and see that there are two frogs on the grass in a clearing, just about as far away from you as the one on the stump. You do not know which one of the two frogs in the clearing croaked.

You only have time to reach the one frog on the stump, or the two frogs in the clearing (one of which croaked) before you pass out. Should you dash to the stump and lick the one frog, or into the clearing and lick the two?

HINT

Again, this is similar to the famously counter-intuitive Monty Hall problem.

*Check back on Fri for the answer